Monday, September 30, 2019

S7/8: Death Pool Winner

Wow, it took us two years to get here? Lame... No, I'm not just talking about the end of GoT, but the end of our death pool! Yes, many months after the show ended, I remembered that we had a death pool to score.

I know, I know, everyone forgot we were even doing this. But hey, I must finish what we started right? Take a quick spin over the rules and teams we assembled from July 2017 and then take a look at our winner... [Edit 10/1/2019: I messed up the scoring...we have co-champs!]


Kavi (17 points / 24 max)
Our death pool champion -- shared, please see below for edits -- went for the "go big or go home" strategy by setting her sights on four major characters, six minor guys, no undrafted -- and she'll walk out among the ashes with seven of her ten characters dead: Cersei, Jamie, Baelish, Ellaria Sand, Jorah, Melisandre, and The Night King. After finishing tied for last in S6, Kavi came roaring back to victory for the death pool. Quite impressive! With this win we can now give Kavi the nickname of "Goddess of Death!" Congrats Kavi!

Vu (17 points / 23 max)
Whoops, in my haste, or just my general overall uselessness, I missed scoring +3 for Jamie Lannister on Vu's team. Which means... *drumroll* ...we have a tie at the top! (With no tie-breaker, as neither Jon Snow or Jamie died.) Vu and Kavi had five of the same characters -- Cersei, Jamie, Little Finger, Jorah, The Night King -- but Kavi had an extra major character, Sansa, whom did not die.

That means Vu also correctly picked seven of ten character deaths, with Grey Worm, Meera Reed, and Tormund Giantsbane as his survivors. We had already dubbed Kavi with her nickname so it's only right to perhaps now call Vu "The Death King!"

Frank (16 points / 20 max)
Our champ from S6, Frank almost took the crown again as he correctly predicted eight out of ten dead characters -- the best showing for our death pool. Alas, he was narrowly edged out for a S7/8 win too as Nymeria Sand and Dickon Tarly were only worth one point each in their deaths. If Yara Greyjoy had bit the dust, Frank could have won the whole thing again. But hey, the Iron Islands survived! With his draft, Frank chose characters with the the second-least possible max -- a possible twenty points -- but he fulfilled most of that promise with his end score.

Malou (16 points / 22 max)
Tied for third, Malou had quite a strong showing by racking up sixteen points with seven of her characters also hitting the dirt. In the end, she just missed out on a title with Daario, Davos, and Grey Worm still alive. Both Frank and Malou hedged their bets on a mix of 1/2/3 point players and ultimately came up just a little short because of it. But placing in the top three was a feat indeed!

Special shout out to Susie and Michael who had most of their team still alive by the end of the tortuous S8, save Jamie, Melisandre, and Theon.

Thanks for playing everyone, maybe we'll do something for the spinoffs! Or um, not....

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Scoring: S8 / EP01-03

It's been a little light on the deaths here through our first two episodes but the third episode, Battle for Winterfell, finally gave us something to cheer about. Sure the plot armor was thick on many of our heroes but hey, what can you do.

Note: As sharp eyed Kavi pointed out, Meryn Trant was killed in Season 5 so Ankur should not receive points for selecting him.

The list of the dead so far in S8:
  • Jorah Mormont (2)
  • Melisandre (2)
  • Night King (2)
  • Theon Greyjoy (2)
  • Dolorous Edd (1)
  • Beric Dondarrion (undrafted)
  • Lyanna Mormont (undrafted)
That means our leading teams are Kavi with eleven points and then Frank, Vu, Jon all tied with nine points each. Kavi, Frank, and Jon have so far picked five dead people correctly, half of their teams. Now if only a Lannister would die, please! Haha.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Scoring S7


So we knew GoT would be saving its big hits for the final season but didn't except so few deaths in S7. There were so few deaths last season that I'm sure most of us forgot we were even playing in a death pool! Who can remember all the way back to July 2017?!? As a reminder, here's who died in S7.

And the only characters that counted for our purposes were:
  • Peter Baelish (3 pts)
  • Ellaria Sand (2)
  • Dickon Tarly (1)
  • Meryn Trant (1)
  • Nymeria Sand (1)
  • Viserion (1)
See the full scoring sheet, our drafted teams, and our rules if you forgot them. Let's ðŸ¤ž for all the deaths to come so we can get a death pool winner!


Peter Baelish made just about everyone's list -- save Susie/Michael, who have yet to lose a player -- but aside from Little Finger, most everyone has their team intact heading into S8. Currently, we have a three-way tie at the top, with each of these owners having scored five points: Frank, Kavi, and Marcus.

Kavi and Marcus both lost the same Baelish and Ellaria Sand duo. Frank scored his five points with Baelish's death and two other minor characters hitting the chopping block, Dickon Tarly and Nymeria Sand.

[Update: We took Dunsen out as "dead" because he hasn't even appeared in the show yet, sorry Ankur!]

Thursday, July 27, 2017

S7/8: Roster Analysis

With ten teams we have a statistically overwhelming sample size to determine what characters were most favored for death. So I ran the numbers and here’s some trends I found. For our full team rosters, go here. And check out this Ringer article about legit GoT gambling sites! Also our friend and former fantasy GoT contestant Samit's insightful and comprehensive recaps are back!

Major Characters
Cersei Lannister leads the way here, with 8/10 owners picking her to meet an untimely death. (The only ones who didn’t? Susie/Michael and Jon.) After that we had Jamie Lannister and Petyr Baelish tied at being selected for 7/10 teams, with five teams going with the entire Cersei/Jamie/Petyr trifecta.

After that we had three people selecting Varys and Sansa, two each for Arya and Jon Snow, and only one contestant (J.A.) selecting Daenerys for an offing. Of the ten major characters, Bran and Tyrion were voted least likely to die by the end of the series as nobody picked them at all...


Minor Characters
Out of our list of twenty minor characters, only Gilly and Podrick didn’t appear on at least one team. Voted most likely to die were Daario Naharis, Grey Worm, and The Night King, who showed up on six teams each. Jorah Mormont was a popular selection too, showing up on half our teams’ rosters.

The Hound and Tormond Giantsbane were on four teams, with Davos Seaworth, Melisandre, and Theon Greyjoy all popping on three lists apiece. Then we get to the less popular characters, who each appeared only twice: Bronn, Ellaria Sand, Meera Reed, Thoros of Myr, and Yara Greyjoy. Brienne (Jordy), Drogon (Kavi), Samwell Tarly (Susie/Michael), and Missandei (Frank) each only appear once.

Non-Major/Minor Characters
We were hoping with a weighted system that the more prominent members of the GoT universe would get picked, and I guess the weighting worked as only four team owners went off the board to select non-major/minor characters. Malou selected Euron Greyjoy, Jon took two “nobodies” as did Frank, and Ankur selected a whopping four +1 characters. (Check out the team breakdown for a special note on one of Ankur’s picks.)


Which owners are rooting for animal deaths?
Ankur thinks Ghost will die, Kavi is taking the baddest dragon, Drogon, and Jon is hoping Viserion is the throwaway dragon.

What about the tie-breakers?
In the event of a tie, we’re going with a tie-breaker, consisting of who is the most likely to live after S8 out of Daenerys, Tyrion or Jon Snow. Surprisingly, nobody picked the Queen of Dragons for the tie-break, with five owners each selecting Tyrion and the newest King in the North. Let's hope this doesn't come down to a tie-break though!

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

S7/8: Teams

Ah, here we go! Ten teams for our S7/8 Death Pool, and with The Ringer trying to steal our death pool thunder we must fight even harder than ever to stay alive! Take a look at the spreadsheet that details out each team, but I’ll also be doing pick analysis and then some recaps when big things happen. Below, let’s take a look at our teams, organized by most potential points.


J.A. (28)
Employing our most aggressive strategy, J.A. chose eight of the major characters to die: Arya, Cersei, Daenerys, Jamie, Jon Snow, Petyr, and Varys. You’ll note that was only seven names, because J.A. was initially so excited for Arya to die that she put her on the list twice. Twice! So the potential score here could be even more, a full 28/30 points. We were thinking of giving that Arya selection big fat zero but after it was pointed out that there were no rules against picking a player twice, the rules committee compromised and will go with user error and allow J.A. to replace one Arya with Sansa instead. That gives J.A. with only Bran and Little Finger unselected of the major ten -- with Daario Naharis and Grey Worm as her two minor characters. Let's see if this all out strategy works!

Jordy, Kavi, Marcus (24)
The next three teams all employed the “four major / six minor” characters makeup, leaving them with a potential 24/30 points. Jordy is rolling with Arya, Cersei, Petyr, and Varys for his big four, while Kavi has the Lannister twins, Little Finger, and Sansa. And in an interesting twist, Marcus has the exact same four major characters he’s rooting for to die.

Do great minds think alike? The fact is that Kavi and Marcus are two of the three owners who picekd Sansa, plus they are alone in the league as the only duo rooting for Ellaria Sand’s death. They also both have Daario Naharis going down. So altogether Kavi and Marcus will be rooting for six of the same deaths! (The rest of Kavi’s roster: Drogon, Jorah, Melisandre, Night King. The rest of Marcus’ picks: Bronn, Grey Worm, Theon, Tormund.) Should they declare their bannermen status now?

Jordy rounds out his team with Brienne, Davos, Melisandre, The Hound, Night King, and Tormund — and as the only owner selecting Brienne, he’s thinking the Brienne/Tormund OTP is likely going to end in tragic style.

Vu (23)
A longtime fantasy player and a respected opponent, I studied Vu’s ballot very carefully to assess what strategy he was up to. He’s also on the Lannister twins plus Petyr Baelish wagon, and then went for a bevy of minor characters: Grey Worm, Jorah Mormont, Meera Reed, The Hound, Night King, Thoros of Myr, and Tormund Giantsbane. That’s five of the most popular minor character picks, so if things work out as everyone expects, Vu is probably in a good position to win. His off-brand picks were Meera and Thoros, who he only shares as “hope they die” selections with Jon. It’s no coincidence both of us have won fantasy sports leagues in the past...

Susie / Michael (23)
Now we don’t award extra points for creativity but Susie and Michael’s ballot had emojis attached to each character and they were amaaaaaazing! See for yourself. I only want to use 🤙 to denote Jamie from now on. (Why no onion emoji Unicode Consortium? A chestnut emoji just won’t do...) Susie and Michael are hoping for a female-led victory in Westeros as they are predicting that 🤙, ☃️, and 🕊 (or 🕷) will all go down. They also had some real rare picks, as they were the only team to predict Samwell Tarly’s name for the chopping block, and only one of two teams for both Bronn and Yara Greyjoy. The rest of their death list includes Daario, Melisandre, Davos Seaworth, and Theon.

Malou (22)
The very popular Cersei, Jamie, Little Finger trio rears their head again as Malou is the fourth team to have this exact triumvirate slated for death. Where she differs from the crowd is in calling for the heads of seven minor characters, all males: Daario, Davos, Grey Worm, Jorah, The Hound, Theon Greyjoy, and Euron Greyjoy. Valar morghulis indeed! So yes, the GoT future is female, according to Malou, as Cersei is the lone woman slated for death if Malou has her way.

Jon (21)
If Jon had one shot to call, he would go with Little Finger as dying, 110%. He also thinks Jamie will bite it, and that Maisie Williams should have been replaced by a better actress long ago...so he says Arya must go too. As for the rest of of his picks, both Dolorous Edd and Viserion stand out as non-major/minor picks and that could potentially limit Jon’s team’s upside. Hopefully, all of Daario, Grey Worm, Meera, Night King, and Thoros of Myr will end the show resting in peace.

Frank (20)
Our returning champ is using Cersei and Petyr as his big two, and then going similar to Jon’s team with two off-brand characters — Dickon Tarly and Nymeria Sand — plus the familiar handful of Grey Worm, Jorah, The Hound, and the Night King. Frank is one of only two teams to have Yara Greyjoy, and is the lone owner to have slated Missandei for death. What do you have against translators Frank? Why kill Missandei!

Ankur (19)
Last season, Ankur finished tied for last place, and while 19/30 possible points could win this thing, an interesting twist here is that Ankur boldly predicts Meryn Trant’s death. “Wait, isn’t Meryn already dead?” Um, yes, yes he is. But if he gets resurrected and then Arya stabs him through the eyes again, +1 to Ankur for the greatest call of all time. Until then, his real maximum points scored is likely 18/30. But Ankur also wisely has the favored death trio -- our fifth team to do so -- of Cersei, Jamie, and Little Finger, and follows that up with Jorah, Night King, and Tormund.

Then we get really interesting, as Ankur is hoping Ghost dies, as well as two more names on Arya’s death list: Ilyn Payne and Dunsen. “Wait, who is Dunsen?!” Yeah, I had to Google it too, and turns out he’s one of The Mountain’s men-at-arms and second on Arya’s death list. So I have to say that this is a great call on Ankur’s part. Let’s see if he can take this low upside, high intrigue team to the top of our death pool!


Thursday, July 6, 2017

S7/8: Death Pool


Alright, we're back! After a long layoff, we're ready to launch into S7 of GoT. (Also, we're going to include S8 too -- I'll explain why at the very bottom...) While we kept it simple last season, we won't have that luxury this year because a) we don't have time to draft and b) there's too many owners who want to join us. So this year we're uncapping the number of teams we have in the league, and we're just going to take everyone!

We're going to do a weighted death pool, giving more points for major and minor characters. Read below for details or go straight to the form and submit before the S7 premiere on Sunday July 16th!


How Does It Work?
Select ten GoT characters who you think will die by the end of S7 and S8.

How Do You Score?
Each major character (there are ten, consult the list) gets +3 points when they die, each minor character gets +2, and any non-major/minor character scores +1 point. (Because there are ten major characters, the maximum points any team could score is 30 points.)

Who Wins?
The team with the most points at the end of the season wins a giant GoT themed prize!

How Do I Join?
Simple, just fill out this Google Form and you're all set! This blog will continue with updates and stuff throughout the remaining season(s). Sit back, relax, and get ready for fire and ice!



Who's Eligible To Be Drafted?
Anyone with a character name from the GoT universe is draftable, even the animals! If you want to draft a wolf or a dragon, or Ser Pounce, go right ahead. Just make sure they have a character name. "Podrick's horse" does not count as a character.
Who Are the Major Characters (+3)?
Arya Stark, Bran Stark, Cersei Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, Jamie Lannister, Jon Snow, Petyr Baelish, Sansa Stark, Tyrion Lannister, Varys

Who Are the Minor Characters? (+2)?
Brienne of Tarth, Bronn, Daario Naharis, Davos Seaworth, Drogon, Ellaria Sand, Gilly, Grey Worm, Jorah Mormont, Meera Reed, Melisandre, Missandei, Podrick Payne, Samwell Tarly, The Hound, The Night King, Theon Greyjoy, Thoros of Myr, Tormund Giantsbane, Yara Greyjoy

Who are the non-Major/Minor Characters (+1)?
Anyone not listed above.

Miscellaneous Rules:
  • Characters that never show up in either S7 or S8 score no points.
  • Characters that are resurrected count as alive even if they are technically "dead."

Some suggested links:

Why are we playing S7 and S8 now?
Because otherwise there would be little incentive to select some of the major characters for early deaths, as there is a lot less chance certain major characters will be killed off in S7 versus S8. By picking our complete death pool now, we can watch in horror for fourteen complete episodes. Good rationale? I hope so!

Friday, July 1, 2016

S6: Death Pool Winner


MAJOR SPOILERS AHEAD. But since we are all GoT diehards, there should really be no spoilers ahead...

Well well, after another round of drafting that took us to six characters each, the race was on for the top of the charts. As it turned out, that last round was crucial to our league as Lothar Frey, Walder Rivers, Lem Lemoncloak, Wun Wun, and Lady Crane all died during the season.

At the end of the day, our winner emerged, with four out of their six characters dead!

First Place: Frank (14 pts)
In an impressive feat, Frank, picking in the #12 draft position, correctly got three of his first picks right. Farewell Ramsay Bolton, Walder Frey, and Margery Tyrell! And then with a prescient pick of Lothar Frey in our post-EP7 round, Frank squeaked out a victory. And there could be a case made that Edmure Tully is doing pretty badly too, stuck in a dungeon somewhere. But that’s just speculation. Long live Dickon Tarly, the only Frank pick that seemed to end the season on a high note! Congrats to our real live doctor, who is apparently more death dealing than we realized!

Second Place: Samit (13)
Our co-commissioner and lead scorer, plus the Designer of Spreadsheets, Samit argued hard for the fate of Maester Wolkan. Alas, even with Winterfell felled, there was no evidence that Maester Wolkan was harmed, much less dead. Still, that gave Samit plenty of deaths on the season, as Smalljon Umber, Harald Karstark (presumed dead after a face biting), and Walder Rivers all took the big sleep. And with Septa Unella getting wine-boarded and tied down to face the monstrosity that is the undead Mountain, she got a well deserved “something terrible” point. Actually, Septa Unella was the only person who got this point, so maybe we don’t even need this rule for our next death pool.

Third Place: Four people tied (12)
Sanjay and Victor leapt out to an early lead but couldn’t muster up enough deaths to get into the winner's circle. Jon G and Archana also racked up three deaths each (two each in EP10), but alas, it would take more to be in true contention. Nice showing for these four though!

.....


Last Place: Ankur and Kavi (6)
Seeing as I watched EP9 with these guys, I know they are GoT super fans. So why weren’t they able to pick ANYONE that died during the season? Seriously guys, are you paying attention the show or what? A sad showing from these two, sad sad sad….


Final Tally
Overall we drafted seventy-eight characters and of those, twenty-five died! That’s about a 32% death rate. Not bad! Of course, a ton of those came in the wildfire explosion but there were still plenty of deaths all around. I hope you enjoyed playing in GoT death pool and who knows what we’ll do for next season!