S7/8: Roster Analysis

With ten teams we have a statistically overwhelming sample size to determine what characters were most favored for death. So I ran the numbers and here’s some trends I found. For our full team rosters, go here. And check out this Ringer article about legit GoT gambling sites! Also our friend and former fantasy GoT contestant Samit's insightful and comprehensive recaps are back!

Major Characters
Cersei Lannister leads the way here, with 8/10 owners picking her to meet an untimely death. (The only ones who didn’t? Susie/Michael and Jon.) After that we had Jamie Lannister and Petyr Baelish tied at being selected for 7/10 teams, with five teams going with the entire Cersei/Jamie/Petyr trifecta.

After that we had three people selecting Varys and Sansa, two each for Arya and Jon Snow, and only one contestant (J.A.) selecting Daenerys for an offing. Of the ten major characters, Bran and Tyrion were voted least likely to die by the end of the series as nobody picked them at all...

Minor Characters
Out of our list of twenty minor characters, only Gilly and Podrick didn’t appear on at least one team. Voted most likely to die were Daario Naharis, Grey Worm, and The Night King, who showed up on six teams each. Jorah Mormont was a popular selection too, showing up on half our teams’ rosters.

The Hound and Tormond Giantsbane were on four teams, with Davos Seaworth, Melisandre, and Theon Greyjoy all popping on three lists apiece. Then we get to the less popular characters, who each appeared only twice: Bronn, Ellaria Sand, Meera Reed, Thoros of Myr, and Yara Greyjoy. Brienne (Jordy), Drogon (Kavi), Samwell Tarly (Susie/Michael), and Missandei (Frank) each only appear once.

Non-Major/Minor Characters
We were hoping with a weighted system that the more prominent members of the GoT universe would get picked, and I guess the weighting worked as only four team owners went off the board to select non-major/minor characters. Malou selected Euron Greyjoy, Jon took two “nobodies” as did Frank, and Ankur selected a whopping four +1 characters. (Check out the team breakdown for a special note on one of Ankur’s picks.)

Which owners are rooting for animal deaths?
Ankur thinks Ghost will die, Kavi is taking the baddest dragon, Drogon, and Jon is hoping Viserion is the throwaway dragon.

What about the tie-breakers?
In the event of a tie, we’re going with a tie-breaker, consisting of who is the most likely to live after S8 out of Daenerys, Tyrion or Jon Snow. Surprisingly, nobody picked the Queen of Dragons for the tie-break, with five owners each selecting Tyrion and the newest King in the North. Let's hope this doesn't come down to a tie-break though!

S7/8: Teams

Ah, here we go! Ten teams for our S7/8 Death Pool, and with The Ringer trying to steal our death pool thunder we must fight even harder than ever to stay alive! Take a look at the spreadsheet that details out each team, but I’ll also be doing pick analysis and then some recaps when big things happen. Below, let’s take a look at our teams, organized by most potential points.

[Death Pool spreadsheet]

J.A. (28)
Employing our most aggressive strategy, J.A. chose eight of the major characters to die: Arya, Cersei, Daenerys, Jamie, Jon Snow, Petyr, and Varys. You’ll note that was only seven names, because J.A. was initially so excited for Arya to die that she put her on the list twice. Twice! So the potential score here could be even more, a full 28/30 points. We were thinking of giving that Arya selection big fat zero but after it was pointed out that there were no rules against picking a player twice, the rules committee compromised and will go with user error and allow J.A. to replace one Arya with Sansa instead. That gives J.A. with only Bran and Little Finger unselected of the major ten -- with Daario Naharis and Grey Worm as her two minor characters. Let's see if this all out strategy works!

Jordy, Kavi, Marcus (24)
The next three teams all employed the “four major / six minor” characters makeup, leaving them with a potential 24/30 points. Jordy is rolling with Arya, Cersei, Petyr, and Varys for his big four, while Kavi has the Lannister twins, Little Finger, and Sansa. And in an interesting twist, Marcus has the exact same four major characters he’s rooting for to die.

Do great minds think alike? The fact is that Kavi and Marcus are two of the three owners who picekd Sansa, plus they are alone in the league as the only duo rooting for Ellaria Sand’s death. They also both have Daario Naharis going down. So altogether Kavi and Marcus will be rooting for six of the same deaths! (The rest of Kavi’s roster: Drogon, Jorah, Melisandre, Night King. The rest of Marcus’ picks: Bronn, Grey Worm, Theon, Tormund.) Should they declare their bannermen status now?

Jordy rounds out his team with Brienne, Davos, Melisandre, The Hound, Night King, and Tormund — and as the only owner selecting Brienne, he’s thinking the Brienne/Tormund OTP is likely going to end in tragic style.

Vu (23)
A longtime fantasy player and a respected opponent, I studied Vu’s ballot very carefully to assess what strategy he was up to. He’s also on the Lannister twins plus Petyr Baelish wagon, and then went for a bevy of minor characters: Grey Worm, Jorah Mormont, Meera Reed, The Hound, Night King, Thoros of Myr, and Tormund Giantsbane. That’s five of the most popular minor character picks, so if things work out as everyone expects, Vu is probably in a good position to win. His off-brand picks were Meera and Thoros, who he only shares as “hope they die” selections with Jon. It’s no coincidence both of us have won fantasy sports leagues in the past...

Susie / Michael (23)
Now we don’t award extra points for creativity but Susie and Michael’s ballot had emojis attached to each character and they were amaaaaaazing! See for yourself. I only want to use 🤙 to denote Jamie from now on. (Why no onion emoji Unicode Consortium? A chestnut emoji just won’t do...) Susie and Michael are hoping for a female-led victory in Westeros as they are predicting that 🤙, ☃️, and 🕊 (or 🕷) will all go down. They also had some real rare picks, as they were the only team to predict Samwell Tarly’s name for the chopping block, and only one of two teams for both Bronn and Yara Greyjoy. The rest of their death list includes Daario, Melisandre, Davos Seaworth, and Theon.

Malou (22)
The very popular Cersei, Jamie, Little Finger trio rears their head again as Malou is the fourth team to have this exact triumvirate slated for death. Where she differs from the crowd is in calling for the heads of seven minor characters, all males: Daario, Davos, Grey Worm, Jorah, The Hound, Theon Greyjoy, and Euron Greyjoy. Valar morghulis indeed! So yes, the GoT future is female, according to Malou, as Cersei is the lone woman slated for death if Malou has her way.

Jon (21)
If Jon had one shot to call, he would go with Little Finger as dying, 110%. He also thinks Jamie will bite it, and that Maisie Williams should have been replaced by a better actress long ago...so he says Arya must go too. As for the rest of of his picks, both Dolorous Edd and Viserion stand out as non-major/minor picks and that could potentially limit Jon’s team’s upside. Hopefully, all of Daario, Grey Worm, Meera, Night King, and Thoros of Myr will end the show resting in peace.

Frank (20)
Our returning champ is using Cersei and Petyr as his big two, and then going similar to Jon’s team with two off-brand characters — Dickon Tarly and Nymeria Sand — plus the familiar handful of Grey Worm, Jorah, The Hound, and the Night King. Frank is one of only two teams to have Yara Greyjoy, and is the lone owner to have slated Missandei for death. What do you have against translators Frank? Why kill Missandei!

Ankur (19)
Last season, Ankur finished tied for last place, and while 19/30 possible points could win this thing, an interesting twist here is that Ankur boldly predicts Meryn Trant’s death. “Wait, isn’t Meryn already dead?” Um, yes, yes he is. But if he gets resurrected and then Arya stabs him through the eyes again, +1 to Ankur for the greatest call of all time. Until then, his real maximum points scored is likely 18/30. But Ankur also wisely has the favored death trio -- our fifth team to do so -- of Cersei, Jamie, and Little Finger, and follows that up with Jorah, Night King, and Tormund.

Then we get really interesting, as Ankur is hoping Ghost dies, as well as two more names on Arya’s death list: Ilyn Payne and Dunsen. “Wait, who is Dunsen?!” Yeah, I had to Google it too, and turns out he’s one of The Mountain’s men-at-arms and second on Arya’s death list. So I have to say that this is a great call on Ankur’s part. Let’s see if he can take this low upside, high intrigue team to the top of our death pool!

S7/8: Death Pool

Alright, we're back! After a long layoff, we're ready to launch into S7 of GoT. (Also, we're going to include S8 too -- I'll explain why at the very bottom...) While we kept it simple last season, we won't have that luxury this year because a) we don't have time to draft and b) there's too many owners who want to join us. So this year we're uncapping the number of teams we have in the league, and we're just going to take everyone!

We're going to do a weighted death pool, giving more points for major and minor characters. Read below for details or go straight to the form and submit before the S7 premiere on Sunday July 16th!

S7/8 Death Pool Team Selection Form

How Does It Work?
Select ten GoT characters who you think will die by the end of S7 and S8.

How Do You Score?
Each major character (there are ten, consult the list) gets +3 points when they die, each minor character gets +2, and any non-major/minor character scores +1 point. (Because there are ten major characters, the maximum points any team could score is 30 points.)

Who Wins?
The team with the most points at the end of the season wins a giant GoT themed prize!

How Do I Join?
Simple, just fill out this Google Form and you're all set! This blog will continue with updates and stuff throughout the remaining season(s). Sit back, relax, and get ready for fire and ice!

Who's Eligible To Be Drafted?
Anyone with a character name from the GoT universe is draftable, even the animals! If you want to draft a wolf or a dragon, or Ser Pounce, go right ahead. Just make sure they have a character name. "Podrick's horse" does not count as a character.

Who Are the Major Characters (+3)?
Arya Stark, Bran Stark, Cersei Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, Jamie Lannister, Jon Snow, Petyr Baelish, Sansa Stark, Tyrion Lannister, Varys

Who Are the Minor Characters? (+2)?
Brienne of Tarth, Bronn, Daario Naharis, Davos Seaworth, Drogon, Ellaria Sand, Gilly, Grey Worm, Jorah Mormont, Meera Reed, Melisandre, Missandei, Podrick Payne, Samwell Tarly, The Hound, The Night King, Theon Greyjoy, Thoros of Myr, Tormund Giantsbane, Yara Greyjoy

Who are the non-Major/Minor Characters (+1)?
Anyone not listed above.

Miscellaneous Rules:

• Characters that never show up in either S7 or S8 score no points.
• Characters that are resurrected count as alive even if they are technically "dead."

Some suggested links:

• Fantasizer S7 Roster
• GoT S7 Wiki
• Fantasora S7 Character List

Why are we playing S7 and S8 now?

Because otherwise there would be little incentive to select some of the major characters for early deaths, as there is a lot less chance certain major characters will be killed off in S7 versus S8. By picking our complete death pool now, we can watch in horror for fourteen complete episodes. Good rationale? I hope so!

S6: Death Pool Winner

MAJOR SPOILERS AHEAD. But since we are all GoT diehards, there should really be no spoilers ahead...

Well well, after another round of drafting that took us to six characters each, the race was on for the top of the charts. As it turned out, that last round was crucial to our league as Lothar Frey, Walder Rivers, Lem Lemoncloak, Wun Wun, and Lady Crane all died during the season.

At the end of the day, our winner emerged, with four out of their six characters dead!

First Place: Frank (14 pts)
In an impressive feat, Frank, picking in the #12 draft position, correctly got three of his first picks right. Farewell Ramsay Bolton, Walder Frey, and Margery Tyrell! And then with a prescient pick of Lothar Frey in our post-EP7 round, Frank squeaked out a victory. And there could be a case made that Edmure Tully is doing pretty badly too, stuck in a dungeon somewhere. But that’s just speculation. Long live Dickon Tarly, the only Frank pick that seemed to end the season on a high note! Congrats to our real live doctor, who is apparently more death dealing than we realized!

Second Place: Samit (13)
Our co-commissioner and lead scorer, plus the Designer of Spreadsheets, Samit argued hard for the fate of Maester Wolkan. Alas, even with Winterfell felled, there was no evidence that Maester Wolkan was harmed, much less dead. Still, that gave Samit plenty of deaths on the season, as Smalljon Umber, Harald Karstark (presumed dead after a face biting), and Walder Rivers all took the big sleep. And with Septa Unella getting wine-boarded and tied down to face the monstrosity that is the undead Mountain, she got a well deserved “something terrible” point. Actually, Septa Unella was the only person who got this point, so maybe we don’t even need this rule for our next death pool.

Third Place: Four people tied (12)
Sanjay and Victor leapt out to an early lead but couldn’t muster up enough deaths to get into the winner's circle. Jon G and Archana also racked up three deaths each (two each in EP10), but alas, it would take more to be in true contention. Nice showing for these four though!

.....


Last Place: Ankur and Kavi (6)
Seeing as I watched EP9 with these guys, I know they are GoT super fans. So why weren’t they able to pick ANYONE that died during the season? Seriously guys, are you paying attention the show or what? A sad showing from these two, sad sad sad….

Final Tally
Overall we drafted seventy-eight characters and of those, twenty-five died! That’s about a 32% death rate. Not bad! Of course, a ton of those came in the wildfire explosion but there were still plenty of deaths all around. I hope you enjoyed playing in GoT death pool and who knows what we’ll do for next season!

Richest Houses in Westeros

0) The Iron Bank
We start here, even though the Iron Bank is not a house, nor in Westeros. But we have to highlight their existence as the richest anything in the GoT universe. As proof, the Iron Bank makes even entire kingdoms supplicants and probably charges at least 20% interest just to stick it to them too. Also, unlike other mega-rich entities, they don’t really need to pay an army for collections because their M.O. is to just fund the other side if someone doesn’t pay up. Mark Gatiss is a genius.

1) House Tyrell
Mace Tyrell may be an idiot but he’s a rich idiot. Already the Lord of Highgarden, Mace kind of owns King’s Landing too, as he’s underwriting most of their bills, has his daughter on the throne/dungeon, and continues having bountiful harvest after bountiful harvest in The Reach. Also, Mace is now Master of Ships and Master of Coin, which we can only assume are high paying positions. Actually, are members of the Small Council paid? Probably not...

2) House Martell
All those water gardens don’t just water themselves do they? From what I can tell, Dorne is like Palm Springs and despite a very dry climate, their landscaping is impressive. My entire basis for giving House Martell such a high ranking is that their wine is said to be the best in the land, and look at how much wine everyone in Game of Thrones drinks.

And let's not forget that Dorne was unconquerable by outside forces, even against Aegon's dragons, so they've been able to steadily fill their coffers. The downside for this Southern power is that there don’t seem to be any Martells left, with only Ellaria Sand and her collection of Oscar winning Sand Snakes to rule. And it looks like Ellaria is about to blow big money on an all out war against the Lannisters...

3) House Targaryen
This one’s tricky… Exactly how much is Dany worth? She’s the ex-wife of a khal, and I assume she gets some of the treasure that Khal Drogo must have storage unit-ed at Vaes Dothrak. I mean, it’s not like her khalasar is alive to claim any of it. (“Hey Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea, where are all the Dothraki who went off with you? They’re all dead?!?” That would have been my first question to her upon her arrival at Dothraki-Con.)

Dany's also the ruler of Meereen, which used to be a flourishing city-state. Well, maybe not now that there’s no slave labor to reinforce the economy. In fact, Dany is like the anti-King Midas, as everything she touches tends to turn to economic shit. But she’s got three dragons, which are near priceless, and Ser Jorah’s unrelenting unrequited love, which is the most precious gift of all. Plus Dany’s also Hizdahr zo Loraq’s widow, which means she should get all of his noble money too. House Targaryen's rich!

4) House Bolton
What the Boltons lack in sincerity they make up for in upward mobility. And now it’s all Ramsay’s. Without a father, or an upstart brother to deal with, the sickest Bolton not only has the Dreadfort but also Winterfell, and with the Starks out of the way — or technically his by marriage — the former second most powerful house in the North is now the most powerful.

Ramsay’s titles are starting to get more and more impressive too: Lord of the Dreadfort, Lord Paramount of the North, Warden of the North, Lord of Winterfell, Kinslayer. Maybe the misdirect in GoT is that it’s the other Snow that’s really a Targaryen. R+L=R? Ramsay sure seems to have an affinity for canines doesn't he? And there's no question he could be a descendent of the Mad King...

5) House Frey
Walder Frey is Lord of the Riverlands and anyone looking to get past the Crossing has to pay him a toll. That’s a lot of cash FasTraking through every year, and while the Freys are basically detested for their new money  -- not to mention their recent backstabbing -- they’ve managed to become very powerful in a short time. And let’s not forget Robb said that the Freys had a huge army, which he desperately needed to attack the South. Sigh, remember those good old days when the Young Wolf was undefeated in battle?

6) Petyr Baelish
There is no House Baelish but isn't Petry Baelish basically a house unto himself? Little Finger is now Lord Protector of the Vale, Lord of Harrenhal, and definitely embezzled while on the job as Master of Coin. Plus, let’s not forget that he probably owns a chain of franchised brothels all across Westeros. And even though those annoying Sparrows might be bad for business right now, we all know that sex always sells. The man just smells like money, and probably heavy cologne. Sidenote: I'd love to know where Baelish keeps his money. Offshore, probably.

7) House Arryn
It seems like House Arryn would be pretty wealthy, but as enclosed as they are in The Eyrie, I don’t think they’re exactly rolling in dough. What exactly are they making money on all the way up there? Plus, look at the haircuts and clothing on Lysa and Robin. They dressed like shit and that has to say something about how House Arryn can’t even afford decent Internet to comb through Pinterest and Tumblr.

8) House Greyjoy
Speaking of people who dress like shit, the Ironborn could really use a makeover. For their entire kingdom. Crappy castles, dingy boats, the Ironborn don’t exactly look like a Great House of Westeros. And it's not like there's a lot of tourism coming to those cloudy, rocky little islands. Plus, "We Do Not Sow" means they aren't exactly producing anything either. In theory the Ironborn are great traders and raid and pillage towns, but we’re pretty sure there’s not much profit in that. The British used their Royal Navy to colonize half the world, the Greyjoys seem to just keep rowing towards defeat.

"The Greyjoys’ extreme commitment to the shabby-chic look is nevertheless bound to be its own special kind of aesthetic torture."
-Bennett Madison's EP4 recap-

9) House Lannister
These dudes had it so good. Well, not really. Tywin informed us that all the gold mines in Casterly Rock have been empty for years, plus their Lannister savings probably went to prop up the throne's failing finances and we know that the crown owes money to just about everybody. And technically the Lannisters don’t even run the town, as Tommen is publicly known as a Baratheon.

Even if the Lannisters did own the crown’s assets, it’s not like tax money is rolling in during wartime (Oh yeah, wars are expensive!) So explain to me exactly how House Lannister still has money? The answer is that they probably don’t, as they’re over-leveraged, low on assets, and will likely have to declare bankruptcy soon. That gold lion on their banner is about to be sold off for scrap metal.

...75) House Stark
Hilarious. Bran’s in a tree, Rickon’s about to suffer god-knows-what, Arya is on an endless Mobius strip of a lame plotline, Jon isn’t a Stark, and Sansa had her birthright forcibly taken away. Very forcibly. But maybe the Starks can recover as they are still the people's choice as House of the North. Or wait, are they? Frey, Bolton, Karstark, the list of families defecting against them just keeps growing...

76) House Baratheon
There are no Baratheons left. And we know Gendry ain’t coming back to reclaim his father’s throne -- since he's a bastard, and probably drowned at sea due to an inability to row or swim. Once Tommen gets exposed as a Lannister, or puts on that supple gold cloak of death, the Baratheons will truly be no more. Sidenote: Who owns Storm’s End now that Stannis is gone?

80) House Tarth
There are no rubies in Tarth. Sorry Locke, Jaime lied. But at least House Tarth now owns a Valyrian steel sword!

99) House Hollard
Ser Dontos was ignominiously made King Joffrey's fool and then it turned out that his family's last heirloom wasn't even real, but a cheap fake! Also, Ser Dontos, last surviving member of House Hollard, is dead. No spoilers.

S6: Team Rosters

What a week and what an episode! We already have three deaths racked up and at this rate drafting five characters each may not be enough! We ended up with thirteen teams, and we're gonna have one extra round after EP7 to shore up some of the characters that may not have shown up yet. See below for the giant roster sheet. And here's a link to the rosters organized by team, as well as the draft results.

S6: Death Pool

Yeah, we're already past EP2 but that's no reason to not start a GoT death pool! Unlike previous seasons, where things got pretty complicated (scoring-wise), we're gonna keep it simple for this season: Just choose who's gonna die and score big points! With the caveat that a character will score minimal points for surviving, just so some of the bigger names still get drafted. I mean, Tyrion isn't going to die this season. Right? Right?!

How Does It Work?
Each team owner will take turns drafting a GoT character, likely 5-7 characters each, depending on how many team owners we'll have.

How Do You Score?
+3 if your character dies this season (dead dead, even before any resurrections)
+2 if your character has something really terrible happen to them (maim, rape, losing a hand, blinded, etc.)
+1 if your character survives the season

Who Wins?
The team with the most points at the end of the season wins something special. Likely bragging rights, but that's enough right? Here's the generic Google Sheets doc if you want to start your own GoT death pool.

How's the Draft Work?
Five (or more) rounds, snake-style, meaning #1-5, 5-1, 1-5, 5-1, etc. We'll be doing an email draft. And ideally finish before EP3, if not then EP4.

Who's Eligible To Be Drafted?
Anyone with a character name from the GoT universe is draftable, even the animals! If you want to draft a wolf or a dragon, or Ser Pounce, go right ahead. Just make sure they have a character name. "Podrick's horse" does not count as a character.

Some suggested links:

• Fantasizr S6 Roster
• Fantasora S6 Roster
• Wired Death Pool
• GoT Death Pool site

Who is the judging panel?

We suggest you select three owners to serve as the judging panel for contested "something really terrible" moments. But this should be used selectively and only if there is a true dispute. No judgements by combat...

*If you've read the books already, it's kind of cheating to play. Although since the HBO show is now "off book," maybe that's okay? Your call!