Thursday, July 27, 2017

S7/8: Roster Analysis

With ten teams we have a statistically overwhelming sample size to determine what characters were most favored for death. So I ran the numbers and here’s some trends I found. For our full team rosters, go here. And check out this Ringer article about legit GoT gambling sites! Also our friend and former fantasy GoT contestant Samit's insightful and comprehensive recaps are back!

Major Characters
Cersei Lannister leads the way here, with 8/10 owners picking her to meet an untimely death. (The only ones who didn’t? Susie/Michael and Jon.) After that we had Jamie Lannister and Petyr Baelish tied at being selected for 7/10 teams, with five teams going with the entire Cersei/Jamie/Petyr trifecta.

After that we had three people selecting Varys and Sansa, two each for Arya and Jon Snow, and only one contestant (J.A.) selecting Daenerys for an offing. Of the ten major characters, Bran and Tyrion were voted least likely to die by the end of the series as nobody picked them at all...


Minor Characters
Out of our list of twenty minor characters, only Gilly and Podrick didn’t appear on at least one team. Voted most likely to die were Daario Naharis, Grey Worm, and The Night King, who showed up on six teams each. Jorah Mormont was a popular selection too, showing up on half our teams’ rosters.

The Hound and Tormond Giantsbane were on four teams, with Davos Seaworth, Melisandre, and Theon Greyjoy all popping on three lists apiece. Then we get to the less popular characters, who each appeared only twice: Bronn, Ellaria Sand, Meera Reed, Thoros of Myr, and Yara Greyjoy. Brienne (Jordy), Drogon (Kavi), Samwell Tarly (Susie/Michael), and Missandei (Frank) each only appear once.

Non-Major/Minor Characters
We were hoping with a weighted system that the more prominent members of the GoT universe would get picked, and I guess the weighting worked as only four team owners went off the board to select non-major/minor characters. Malou selected Euron Greyjoy, Jon took two “nobodies” as did Frank, and Ankur selected a whopping four +1 characters. (Check out the team breakdown for a special note on one of Ankur’s picks.)


Which owners are rooting for animal deaths?
Ankur thinks Ghost will die, Kavi is taking the baddest dragon, Drogon, and Jon is hoping Viserion is the throwaway dragon.

What about the tie-breakers?
In the event of a tie, we’re going with a tie-breaker, consisting of who is the most likely to live after S8 out of Daenerys, Tyrion or Jon Snow. Surprisingly, nobody picked the Queen of Dragons for the tie-break, with five owners each selecting Tyrion and the newest King in the North. Let's hope this doesn't come down to a tie-break though!

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