Friday, April 4, 2014

RD1-3: Draft Analysis

Incredibly, if you navigate to the main Fantasizr page for Game of Thrones and then go to the "Stats" tab and then "Draft Rankings," you can see the average draft position (ADP) for every character! What a useful tool when you aren’t exactly sure what other people might think about a character’s value. Of course, since nobody has played this game before -- and most of us haven't read the books -- all of the rankings are guesses, without any historical weight or true value to be discerned. Still, what would a fantasy league be without a proper draft review? Here are the scoring rules for a refresher and now a detailed look at the first three (of six) rounds from our SYTYCDWD draft!

ROUND ONE
1. Jon Snow (Fantasizr Draft Rank: 1)
It’s hard to gauge how many fantasy leagues have been created for GoT but it’s at least ten, since that’s what the Fantasizr activity tab shows. That means, with a pristine ADP of 1.0, Jon Snow has gone first in every single draft. At least that’s what I can conjecture, without knowing exactly how Fantasizr is calculating ADP. What we do know though, is that the bastard Stark is a five tool fantasy character. He’s definitely gonna dole out some punishment, he’s obviously capable of killing, and he’s already broken his Nightwatch vows to never have sex -- although if he hopes to sleep with Ygritte again, he might be in line for that -7 for getting injured. Mr. Devirginized rounds out his talents with a few verbal jabs here and there and while I can’t recall him drinking, it’s likely because he’s been on the wrong side of The Wall for so long. We should see him reminisce over good times with recently reunited BFF Samwell Tarly, perhaps over a beer or two. Or maybe Snow’ll get all drunk emotional and blab on and on about “the one that got away (but actually I ran away and she shot me with an arrow).” Overall, Jon Snow is definitely the obvious #1 pick here, as he now pivots clearly into the role of main white hat on the show.

2. Tyrion Lannister (8)
Something weird is going on because Tyrion went super early in our draft and his strengths are obvious. He’s perhaps less capable at killing and maiming than most others but he’ll more than make up for it with fornicating, a silver tongue, and high level alcoholism. Plus, he’s one of the main protagonists of the show so he’ll get plenty of screen time. So why is his cumulative ranking so low? We can only guess that perhaps there’s an early death or something coming. Or maybe team owners were wary of Tyrion's propensity to get insulted back. Or to get chopped in the face. Or fantasy owners are just discriminating against small people with big brains. I’m not sure. Otherwise, for such a crowd favorite, why would Tyrion consistently drop so low? This analyst thinks Tyrion always deserves a first round selection, and we'll see if the little man turns out to be top two worthy.

3. Daenerys Targaryen (3)
The burning question is: Do Dany’s dragons count as an extension of her? As the owner who picked the Mother of Dragons at #3, I’d love for the answer to be “yes.” I mean, everyone kills with the instrument of their choice right? Warriors smite with steel, spies poison with poison, witches birth smoke monsters, etc. What are Daenerys’ dragons if not the original biological weapons of mass destruction? Who's with me?! Dany could actually be quite overrated if dragonfire infernos are not her own. She’ll likely throw a few insults here or there, maybe in High Valerian, and maybe sip on a little schnapps out of courtesy, but her value is basically tied to how often she’ll hook up. And despite her many suitors, Dany hasn’t slept with anyone since Khal Drogo. And that was maybe four or five times on-screen, meaning Dany could max out at 20-25 points in that category. Plus, Emilia Clarke has gone on record saying that she’s done with nude scenes, perhaps leaving most of Daenerys’ bedroom scenes to be pushed off-screen. The Breaker of Chains ain't a lock to be a scoring leader.

4. Jaime Lannister (9)
If anyone’s going to challenge Jon Snow for top dog (wolf?) status, it’ll be Jaime. He’s like Michael Jordan on the comeback trail. If this was Season One, the Kingslayer would a frontrunner for MVP of the series. After all, he was boinking Cersei on the regular, he pushed children out windows, and he was pretty swishy with a sword. Plus, his verbal daggers were tossed at every target within hearing distance. And as the continent's foremost entitled douchebag, of course he got his liquor on too. However, after a pitiful season spent in chains, and literally losing his grip, Jaime has been humbled and is either going to spiral further into depression -- shots shots shots shots! -- or he’s going to reclaim his former glory. For our Gold Dragons, we bet Jaime rediscovers his fighting prowess, drinks at night to self-medicate, and manages to sex it up with someone if not his, um, sister. Jaime’s even got his combination Scottie Pippen/Dennis Rodman now: Brienne of Tarth. A seventy-two win season could be in the cards!

5. The Hound (6)
We arrive at our first specialist. Forget being well rounded, The Hound only does one thing: 187. Sure, he’s likely to get injured once in awhile but The Hound is GoT's Rambo and his kill count is going to be grisly. With a scoring system that awards twice as many points for a death blow versus a bedding, it won’t matter that Sandor Clegane might be an automatic swipe left for all users of Westeros' Tinder. The Hound ain't pretty to look at but he's the best at what he does, and what he does isn't very nice. Also, the shorter Clegane could be a bit underrated with his insults too. I think we could have a dark horse MVP candidate. Murder, murder, murder, kill, kill, kill!

6. Petyr Baelish (20)
A shocker as the former Master of Coin vaults up to first round status. This pick’s quite interesting as it seems like Baelish is not the type to get his hands dirty, leaving out any potential killing or injuring. And while he runs the brothels, it’s rare to see Little Finger getting sprung on his own supply, as it were. There’s plenty of points to be had for Baelish's constant wine drinking but most of his value is going to have to come from his forked tongue. The problem is, Petyr is far too savvy to insult anyone to their face, and his master manipulator moves aren’t rewarded in this format. Also, isn’t he being sent away to marry somebody or other? We’re a tiny bit concerned about Little Finger’s screen time this season. Overreach?

7. Bronn (11)
Well, here’s someone who makes the most of his screen time. Every moment Bronn is on-screen, he’s either drinking, fucking, insulting, or killing. For “points per minute,” I’d nominate Bronn as a front runner. His fantasy efficiency numbers must be off the charts. The only thing holding Bronn back is that he’s a secondary character, and perhaps even tertiary. So unless that changes, we think it'll be hard for him to reach franchise player status.

ROUND TWO
8. Daario Naharis (7)
Perhaps a great value pick here, as Daario is looking like the new leading man in Daenerys’ life. As well as being a professional killer, the new leader of the Second Sons should be at least a four category character. We know Daario’s probably itching to do something with his tongue, but we’re not sure if it’ll necessarily be flinging insults. Perhaps it’ll, um, be used for something else. Either way, the merc with a heart is guaranteed to see a big bump in screen time this season. We're sensing a breakout season.

9. Prince Oberyn Martell (12)
Have we even seen this character yet? I know nothing about him. His Fantasizr bio spits out a whole ton of family relations but I have no idea what they mean. The Prince’s nickname is the “Red Viper of Dorne,” which test markets well for this fantasy audience. A catchy name like that doesn't sound like a generic Disney Prince Charming to me! My guess is that whoever took Oberyn high in (y)our draft obviously read the books beforehand. In this particular case, knowing really is half the battle. Ahem, cheaters...

10. Melisandre (18)
Basically a one category wonder, Melisandre is gonna grind her way onto the scoreboard. The good news is that the Lord of Light does not require celibacy. If anything, the Red Priestess will challenge all characters for the amount of sex had on-screen. Cue up “Pony” right now! There’s a chance Melisandre will fanatic her way into a human sacrifice or two but we’re hard pressed to see this suck up / succubus saying anything very insulting. Also, does she drink? Does blood count?

11. Cersei (5)
It’s a shame someone can’t teach Cersie how to swing a weapon. She could challenge for top tier status if she could just kill someone once in awhile. Next season, it would be awesome to see behind-the-scenes manipulation rewarded somehow. Instead, Mrs. Baratheon, maiden name Lannister, will have to make due with cutting people down with words. “I’ll take swords for $100, Alex." Unfortunately, Cersei also has a tendency to be cut down sometimes herself, especially if Daddy Dearest is present. Still, as the resident King’s Landing lush, Cersei is going to rack up the drinking points. And now that Jaime is back, maybe there’s more incest to be had? According to her pre-draft ranking, Cersei dropped quite a bit here, and could end up being quite the steal. Don’t forget that Lena Headey is one of the GoT main stars in real life, and the gifter of ridiculously fun GoT Instagrams. Yes, I'll admit: I was hoping for Cersei to fall to me.

12. Brienne (13)
Who’s more dour than The Hound? His female alter-ego, Brienne the Beauty. It’ll be interesting to see what sorts of shenanigans the ruby-less heir can get into this season. Might she finally lose her maidenhead? Unlikely, unless Jaime gets reeeeally drunk. But Brienne should be good for a few “defending someone’s honor” slayings at least. Plus, she’s no slouch with the insults herself. The big question is who does Brienne serve now that Catelyn Stark’s dead? Either way, let’s hear it for our favorite woman warrior in reasonable armor! One more question: Can Brienne dunk?

13. Tywin Lannister (14)
If penmanship and grammar were a scoring category, the Lion of Lannister would win in a landslide. Instead, Tywin will have to settle for verbally eviscerating everyone while hardly ever hearing a peep back. The father-we-all-deserve definitely won’t get his hands dirty, ala Little Finger, but he will rack up the drinking and death by insult points. There’s definitely no sex to be had in Tywin’s future, but he’s really only got a hard-on for puppeteering mass murders and preserving family legacies anyway. Physical pleasures would be soooo beneath him.

14. Arya Stark (4)
This is a confusing ranking. Arya doesn’t drink, (hopefully) won’t have sex, and isn’t strong enough to really hurt anyone yet. Is there a growth spurt coming that I’m not aware of? Or will we be seeing a GoT version of The Next Karate Kid co-starring The Hound as Mr. Miyagi? From what I can tell, Arya has a much bigger bark than her bite and she would get her ass handed to her in any of The Hunger Games. So with only insults to fend off her enemies, why was Arya getting drafted so high? Even #14 seems a bit lofty, even if she is a B.U.P. (Blow Up Potential).

ROUND THREE
15. Stannis Baratheon (2)
Okay, is Stannis about to transform into a mech warrior or something? A consensus top two pick and he went in round three of our draft. I don’t think the last legitimate Baratheon’s killed anyone yet, and he seems to be pretty ill-equipped to fight with big boy words too. If anything, Stannis has proven to be a sucker time after time and his only saving grace has been Melisandre. (Sidenote: Where is the Onion Knight on the list of draft eligible characters? It's just fun to say, "onion knight.") I can’t imagine any scenario where Stannis would be worth a super high pick unless he literally turns into the Lord of Light and shoots magic missiles from his hands. Otherwise, he seems to rank low in every category save jealous sexting and maybe some drinking. Stannis' value will have to lie in an uptick in screen time, but his #2 Fantasizr ranking seems illogically high.

16. Tormund Giantsbane (19)
I guess if your name means “a cause of great distress to giants” that means you’re pretty good at fighting. I’m pretty sure Tormund’s not getting points in any other categories though. Unless there’s an award for “best beard.” Then he can be in it to win it. Spirit fingers!

17. Joffrey Baratheon (27)
King Jaffe Joffer! The most feared man in Zamunda...and Queens! Oh wait, wrong king. The only thing these two rulers have in common is an affinity for lion skins. It’s hard to tell where Joffrey’s character trajectory is going. On one hand, I can see how he might soon rise like a sociopathic shining star and dominate this season. Or he could just get slapped around -- both physically and verbally -- to the point where all his points are lost. We see a budding five category character but will Joffrey stick around to realize his potential? With an aggregate ranking of #27, it seems like nobody believes much in the whiny king. At least the boy's got his own money!

18. Jorah Mormont (17)
Where is this exiled knight going this season? The “protector of Daenerys” role is getting pretty crowded. There’s Barristan Selmy, there’s Daario Naharis, there’s Grey Worm and the rest of the Unsullied. Plus the remaining khalasar. Not to mention Drogon, Viserion, and Rhaegal are growing up nicely. What’s a man-at-arms to do? Unfortunately, not much. Ser Jorah’s probably going to get a few kills this season but I think most of his time will be spent cock blocking Daario. Any points for that?

19. Ygritte (16)
YES, YGRITTE! I just like to type her name out in caps because she’s so awesome. We are praying to the old gods that Ygritte gets a ton of more screen time this season because she’s the rare GoT lady who’s capable of delivering across all five categories. Killing crows, shooting exes, talking shit, chewing bubble gum, this wildling can do it all! Fired up by Jon Snow’s treachery, we foresee Ygritte getting the chance to kick some Southern ass all season long. And damn if hot make-up sex won’t be on the table if the two lovers ever reunite. There's a chance we could see injuries, sexing, drinking, insulting, and killing all in one epic scene!

20. Mance Rayder (10)
Living north of The Wall sure makes people boring. Has Mance ever said anything interesting? I think not. Also, the Night’s Watch sure has a turncoat problem right? The King-beyond-the-Wall is ranked super high, like top ten high, above illustrious folk like Bronn, Brienne, and Tywin. Is the upcoming super raid about to make him a main character? Also, Mance and Tormund Giantsbane were taken six spots apart in our draft, with Tormund going higher. That's in direct opposition to the rest of Fantasizr, which had Mance ranked nine spots higher than Tormund. I'm not sure what the perceived difference in value is. And why so high in general? Will Mance and Tormund get to rape and pillage as they invade? Will one of them start getting really sarcastic and witty? Do they call it a day after they find caskets of mead?

21. Benjen Stark (28)
As we hit the bottom of the round, here’s a pick that totally flummoxed me. At first I thought Benjen was an alternate name for the younger Stark brother. After some light Googling, I discovered that Benjen is the "First Ranger of the Night's Watch.” The brother of Ned or something. Eh, whatever. Good luck staying alive buddy, your last name has an expiration stamp attached to it.

All right, that’s it! We have three more rounds after this and while fantasy championships are won or lost in the middle to late rounds, I don't even know who I'm talking about anymore. Last tidbit: Of our first twenty-one picks, it seems like only Jaqen H’ghar (15) and Margaery Tyrell (21) slipped past our owners, as compared to the Fantasizr rankings. As always, we welcome all insight, discussion, and analysis. No spoilers please!

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